WTC Final Qualification All Possibilities: We are now in the endgame of the 2023-25 World Test Championship cycle, as only three contenders remain for the two spots in the final. India, Australia, and South Africa are the only teams that are realistically in the race to the final, which will be played at the ‘Mecca of Cricket,’ Lord’s in London from June 11-15, 2025.
While these are the three teams that remain in the race for a place in the WTC final, all of them have very different chances of making it to the ultimate match of this competition. While some teams only need to focus on their own results, others will be dependent on the results of other teams’ matches for qualification. It should be noted that it is the team’s PCT, which is calculated by dividing their points by the maximum points they could have achieved and multiplying that by 100, that decides the team’s ranking on the standings.
WTC Final Qualification All Possibilities
Today, we will look at the possibilities, requirements, and chances of how these three teams can qualify for the World Test Championship 2023/25 final:
India
Out of the three contenders, India has the slimmest chance of making it to the final, despite being the only team to have made it to two WTC finals so far. Unlike the other two, India only has the ongoing Border-Gavaskar Trophy against the Aussies in their calendar before the final. They are currently third in the WTC 2023-25 points table with 110 points and a 57.29 PCT.
India’s 3-0 loss at home to New Zealand put a serious damper in the works for Rohit Sharma’s men. Currently, the BGT stands 1-1 after two Test matches. If, by some miracle, the Men in Blue win this series 4-1, India will qualify for the WTC final despite what the results of other series and matches would be.
If India wins this series 3-1, that too will be enough for automatic final qualification. Two wins and a draw in the next three games will bring them to 134 points in the table, bringing them from third to second. So even if Australia wins their two-Test series against Sri Lanka next year, that would not be enough for them to leapfrog India.
However, if the series result is 2-2 or 3-2, meaning that the Aussies win at least one more match, it would complicate things. In these scenarios, India’s points would be either 122 or 134, while Australia’s would be 122 with two matches remaining, winning even one of which would be enough. It should be noted that India and Australia will play the same amount of Tests in this cycle, meaning that their points are enough to tell us who finishes higher in the table. However, all this would still be enough if South Africa lost their two Test matches against Pakistan at home.
Australia
The Aussies are currently second in the WTC 2023-25 table with 102 points and a PCT of 60.71. They have three matches of the ongoing Border-Gavaskar Trophy remaining, along with a two-Test away series against Sri Lanka next year.
Just winning the BGT by any scoreline would be enough for the Kangaroos to qualify because that would bring their points over that of India. So then, the result of the Sri Lanka series wouldn’t matter. However, if they lose the series 4-1 or 3-1, they would need South Africa to lose 2-0 against Pakistan at home for a place in the final.
If the Aussies lose the BGT 3-2 or draw it 2-2, they would need to win both or at least one of their matches against Sri Lanka, respectively.
South Africa
For the Proteas, the equation is simple: win both matches at home against Pakistan and qualify for the WTC final in 2025. They are the favourites to make it to the final. However, if they lose the series 2-0, they would need either India or Australia to lose all their Tests from this point.
If the series against Pakistan ends in a 1-1 draw or a 1-0 win for South Africa, that should still be enough for them to book a place in the final of the World Test Championship. So, all Temba Bavuma’s team has to do is win at least one match out of two against Pakistan.
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