ICC WTC 2025 Final Qualification Scenario: Currently, three Test series are ongoing: India vs Australia, South Africa vs Sri Lanka, and New Zealand vs England. All three of these Test series are part of the ICC WTC 2023-25 cycle, and their results will have a huge bearing on which two sides meet in the final next year, which is slated for June to be played at Lord’s.
India bounced back to the top of the ICC WTC points table after winning the Perth Test, having lost their grip from the top spot following their 3-0 home whitewash at the hands of New Zealand.
South Africa, too, made a steady jump to the second position with a win over Sri Lanka in Durban. England won the first Test against New Zealand, but both teams were docked three points, which hurt both of their chances of reaching the ICC WTC 2025 final.
We will see the ICC WTC 2025 Final Qualification Scenarios of the top five teams in the rankings.
India
India have 61.11% PCT (percentage of points won) right now. They have four Tests left, all in Australia. India need to win three out of four Tests to book a place in the ICC WTC 2025 final without depending on other results.
South Africa
South Africa have 59.26% currently. They have one home Test against Sri Lanka and two home Tests against Pakistan left in this cycle.
If they win all three of these Tests, which is a likely result, they will reach the ICC WTC final. South Africa can also reach the final if they beat Sri Lanka in the second Test and then draw 1-1 with Pakistan.
Australia
Defending WTC champions Australia currently have a 57.69% PCT. They have six Tests left in this cycle: four at home against India and two in Sri Lanka.
To reach a second consecutive WTC final without depending on other results, Australia will need to win four of their remaining six Tests. They could draw the BGT 2024-25 2-2 and still end up in the final if they do well in Sri Lanka.
Even if Australia lose 3-2 to India, they could reach the final if they clean sweep Sri Lanka by 2-0.
Sri Lanka
The loss to South Africa in the first Test has dented Sri Lanka’s chances of reaching the ICC WTC 2025 final. They have a 50% PCT at the moment and three Tests at their disposal—one in South Africa and two at home against Australia.
To enter the final without looking at other series results, Sri Lanka would need to win all their three remaining Test matches. If they lose even one of them, they will have to depend on other results.
New Zealand
New Zealand, the ICC WTC 2021 final winners, have a PCT of 47.92 right now. They have only two home Tests remaining in this cycle. Even if they win the next two Tests against England, New Zealand can now reach a maximum of 55.36%, which is unlikely to take them through.
To finish in the top two, the Black Caps will need a spate of other results to go their way. For example, they will require the BGT 2024-25, South Africa vs Sri Lanka, South Africa vs Pakistan, and Sri Lanka vs Australia all four series to finish at 1-1.
England and Pakistan are all but out of the race to the ICC WTC 2025 final, as they are only mathematically alive, while Bangladesh and West Indies are out of contention.
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